For years, researchers have been trying to determine the best predictors for successful marriage and for divorce. However, a new study, which followed 100 couples over a 15-year time period has found that one seemingly obvious predictor of divorce, marital dissatisfaction, does not have as clear a relationship to divorce as previously assumed.

In fact, the study found that the level of satisfaction at the beginning of a marriage in no way gave researchers clues as to whether the marriage would last or not. In the same way, the couple’s level of satisfaction in the years leading up to divorce was also a poor predictor of whether or not a marriage would be successful.

What could this study possibly conclude? Researchers are saying that the idea of marital satisfaction is far more complex than they had previously thought, and that since satisfaction changes so much throughout a marriage, it is difficult to link any change in satisfaction levels to the end of a marriage.